Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.066117 0.075996 0.087176 0.100829 0.117141 0.136115 0.160015
2025-11-09 0.048630 0.059806 0.073542 0.091868 0.115982 0.147065 0.190880
2025-11-16 0.039274 0.051222 0.067015 0.089844 0.122719 0.169512 0.243348
2025-11-23 0.032252 0.044304 0.061304 0.087754 0.129231 0.194251 0.309252
2025-11-30 0.027426 0.039529 0.057676 0.087978 0.139662 0.229048 0.407432
2025-12-07 0.023526 0.035414 0.054263 0.087890 0.150067 0.268599 0.536521
2025-12-14 0.019882 0.031064 0.049675 0.084877 0.154908 0.301114 0.674098
2025-12-21 0.016259 0.026156 0.043271 0.077207 0.148900 0.310502 0.768811
2025-12-28 0.014351 0.023856 0.041019 0.076945 0.158388 0.359728 1.011679
2026-01-04 0.012987 0.022295 0.039838 0.078624 0.173195 0.431114 1.398976
2026-01-11 0.011685 0.020640 0.038180 0.078939 0.185288 0.503960 1.890866
2026-01-18 0.010560 0.019150 0.036586 0.079055 0.197337 0.586462 2.562510
2026-01-25 0.009384 0.017416 0.034244 0.077002 0.203441 0.657712 3.345558
2026-02-01 0.008241 0.015590 0.031396 0.073006 0.202508 0.705121 4.126719
2026-02-08 0.007563 0.014639 0.030350 0.073550 0.216869 0.831023 5.884330
2026-02-15 0.006941 0.013722 0.029224 0.073623 0.230175 0.969670 8.386337
2026-02-22 0.006478 0.013088 0.028669 0.075256 0.250663 1.173976 12.890286
2026-03-01 0.006042 0.012453 0.028000 0.076400 0.270442 1.407309 19.941881
2026-03-08 0.005535 0.011588 0.026595 0.074830 0.278260 1.581103 28.147328
2026-03-15 0.004912 0.010373 0.024083 0.068958 0.263807 1.578654 32.377515
2026-03-22 0.004601 0.009876 0.023430 0.069333 0.279993 1.854001 51.010646
2026-03-29 0.004378 0.009566 0.023237 0.071327 0.306282 2.283832 91.658935
2026-04-05 0.004132 0.009166 0.022728 0.072034 0.326727 2.718860 160.524943